Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

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Consumer Confidence Index

The Conference Board will kick-off this week’s activities when they post their August Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM Tuesday. This index measures consumer sentiment about their own financial and employment situations, giving us an idea about consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their finances, they are more apt to spend money. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data is watched closely. A noticeable decline in confidence would indicate that surveyed consumers probably will not make a large purchase in the immediate future, making broader economic growth more difficult. The index is expected to come in at 90.6, which would be a slight decline from July's 90.8. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

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New Home Sales

Also set to be posted late Tuesday morning is July's New Home Sales report that will give us a small indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It tracks only a small portion of all home sales with an overwhelming majority of U.S. sales covered in the Existing Home Sales report that was released earlier this month. Current forecasts show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes last month, pointing to more housing weakness. A large decline in sales would make the data favorable for mortgage rates even though we should see only a minor reaction to the report at best, regardless of what it shows.

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Personal Income and Outlays

Wednesday morning has three major economic reports scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. The most influential of the batch is July’s Personal Income and Outlays report. It helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Forecasts have it coming in with a 0.2% rise in income and a 0.1% increase in spending. Since consumer spending makes up such a large portion of the U.S. economy, weaker than expected numbers would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, what makes this report so important to the markets though, are key inflation readings (PCE and Core PCE indexes) within the data that the Fed relies heavily on during their FOMC meetings. This will be the last release of the PCE readings before next month's FOMC meeting, meaning they may affect how the Fed votes what to do with short-term interest rates. Favorable news for rates would be a noticeably slower pace of inflation.

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GDP Rev 1 (month after initial)

Next up the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S., making it the best benchmark of economic growth or contraction. This reading is the second of three that we see each quarter. Last month's preliminary reading revealed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.5%. Wednesday's release is expected to show the same rate. A minor upward or downward adjustment won't have much of an impact on the markets or rates since the data is a bit aged at this point. That said, a stronger economy usually makes bonds less appealing to investors, leading to higher mortgage rates.

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Durable Goods Orders

July's Durable Goods Orders report is the final relevant report set for Wednesday morning. The data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.5% in new orders, pointing to slightly stronger manufacturing activity last month. This data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, so a minor variance from expectations doesn't necessarily raise too much concern about the economy. A secondary reading that excludes more volatile transportation-related orders is expected to rise 0.5% also. Weaker readings would be good news for the bond and mortgage markets.

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Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The first of the week's two relevant Treasury auctions will be taking place Wednesday also. 5-year Treasury Notes are being sold that day, followed by 7-year Notes Thursday. Results will be announced at 1:00 PM ET each day. These sales don't directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, meaning a weak interest in the securities, we could see broader selling in the bond market after results are announced. A strong demand from investors would be good news and may lead to a modest improvement to mortgage pricing Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoon.

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Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

The final economic release of the week will be the University of Michigan's revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 10:00 AM ET Friday. This sentiment index helps us track consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to have held at August's preliminary reading of 51.0 from two weeks ago. If it revises lower, consumers were less confident about their personal financial situations than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. The lower the reading we get, the better the news for mortgage shoppers.

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Fed Talk

Fed Chairman Warsh will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming Friday morning at 10:00 AM ET. This event is often considered the Fed Chairman's annual outline for monetary policy and always draws the attention of the markets. Considering the difficult position the Fed may be in regarding what to do at next month's meeting, bond traders will be closely following his words for an indication of how the data that came after the FOMC meeting may have altered the Fed's thought process and game plan for short-term rates.

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Overall, Wednesday is the most important day for rates with the release of three big economic reports. We may see a big move Friday also if Chairman Warsh’s speech reveals any big surprises. Thursday is a good candidate for calmest day, assuming nothing unexpected happens. It will likely be an active week for the financial and mortgage markets, albeit we will probably see the biggest move in rates midweek. Since there are so many potential influences in the financial and geopolitical arenas right now, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on them if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Consumer Confidence Index

New Home Sales

Personal Income and Outlays

GDP Rev 1 (month after initial)

Durable Goods Orders

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

Fed Talk

none

Float / Lock Recommendation