Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, September 20th

This week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports and none of them are considered to be a major release. In addition to the data there are also a couple of Treasury auctions and a summit with U.S. and China taking place. All of the most influential scheduled events start the latter days, meaning absent something unexpected happening, mortgage rates should be calmer the earlier days than later in the week.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Fed Talk

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, Tuesday or Wednesday. Now that the FOMC meeting is behind us, so is the mandatory quiet period where Fed members do not publicly speak about the economy or monetary policy issues. The new post-FOMC week has plenty of these Fed speeches scheduled, but most have irrelevant topics and are not likely to affect mortgage rates. There is at least one speaking engagement scheduled four of the five days, meaning we will be watching for any surprise comments.

Low

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The first scheduled activity is the 5-year Treasury Note auction results at 1:00 PM ET Wednesday. This will tell us if there is an appetite in the markets for medium-term securities. If the results announcement indicates investor demand was strong, particularly from international buyers, the broader bond market could move a bit higher, pushing mortgage rates slightly lower Wednesday afternoon. But a lackluster interest from investors could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage pricing. This scenario will be repeated Thursday when 7-year Notes are sold.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

Thursday morning's release of August's New Home Sales report will start this week's economic data. It is expected to show sales of newly constructed homes rose modestly last month, but this is the least important report in terms of potential impact on mortgage rates in a light week of data. We don't expect the report to have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates unless it differs greatly from forecasts, partly because it covers only a small portion of all home sales in the U.S. Good news for rates would be a large decline.

High

Unknown

Geopolitical/Financial Issues

Also Thursday is the start of the U.S. – China Summit in Washington D.C. where President Trump will host President Xi. Topics are expected to range from trade and tariffs to rare-earth mineral agreements and geopolitical situations such as Taiwan and the Middle East conflict. We will be watching for headlines that may be relevant to mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Durable Goods Orders

Next up is August's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET Friday that indicates manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Big-ticket products are items that are expected to last three or more years such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.4% decline in new orders, pointing towards weakness in the manufacturing sector. A larger decline should help boost bond prices and cause mortgage rates to move lower Friday because signs of economic weakness make longer-term securities more appealing to investors. It is worth noting that this data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month, so a small variance from forecasts may not affect mortgage pricing like it would in other reports.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

Closing out this week's calendar will be the University of Michigan's revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for September at 10:00 AM ET Friday. The preliminary reading that was released earlier this month showed a 51.7 reading. Analysts are expecting to see a decline, meaning consumers were more confident in their personal financial situations earlier this month than they are now. Waning confidence is good news for bonds because consumers that are worried about their own financial and employment situations are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future, limiting economic growth. Accordingly, a lower than expected reading would be favorable news for rates.

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Unknown

none

Overall, no day stands out as the most important for mortgage rates with no key data scheduled for release. It is unclear what the summit may yield, particularly that the bond market may be interested in, so it is a wild card. Middle East headlines and oil price movement may also come into play, especially the early days when nothing else is scheduled. While this doesn’t appear that this week is going to be overly active in terms of market and mortgage rates changes, it still is possible for them to get volatile without notice. Therefore, it would be wise to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing soon.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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