Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, August 26th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning’s economic data gave us unfavorable results. Stocks are showing minor losses of 45 points in the Dow and 44 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (4.66%), which should erase all of yesterday afternoon’s intraday improvement in rates to leave them at Tuesday’s morning levels. If you saw an intraday improvement, you should see an increase of approximately the same size in this morning’s pricing.

9/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.66%

45

Dow

55,532

44

NASDAQ

26,108

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Negative

Inflation News

This morning’s batch of important economic data began with the release of July’s Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. The biggest news to come from the release were the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes that revealed inflation was a bit stronger than expected last month. The July overall PCE reading rose 0.2% with a year-over-year rate of 3.7%. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.1% increase and a 3.6% annual rate. The more important core readings matched forecasts of up 0.2% and 3.3% respectively.

Medium

Negative

Personal Income and Outlays

The other headline numbers in this report also came in stronger than expected. Personal income was up 0.4%, exceeding predictions of 0.2%. Spending rose 0.2%, higher than the 0.1% that was expected. These numbers indicate that consumers had more money to spend than thought and did spend more. Furthermore, prices rose more than expected, raising the possibility of the Fed hiking key short-term interest rates before the end of the year.

Medium

Negative

GDP Rev 2 (month after Rev 1)

Also released early this morning was the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. It showed the economy grew at a 1.5% annual pace to match the initial estimate posted last month. However, a secondary reading that is related to inflationary pressures was revised higher from the first reading of the quarter. This data is aged now since it covers the April through June months, but we still have to consider today’s update as bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

High

Neutral

Durable Goods Orders

July's Durable Goods Orders report was the third release. This report indicated strength in the manufacturing sector by showing a 1.1% increase in new orders for big-ticket products such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. A secondary reading in this data that excludes more costly and volatile airplane-related orders was a little lower than expected, allowing us to label the data neutral for mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There is a 5-year Treasury Note auction taking place today also with results set to be announced at 1:00 PM ET. These are considered to be shorter-term securities compared to long-term debt that mortgage rates are based on, so we likely won’t see a noticeable reaction unless investor demand was overly strong or quite poor. Favorable news for rates is always a strong investor demand for Treasury securities, while a weak interest often leads to a negative reaction in the broader bond market. However, this week’s sales aren’t expected to heavily influence mortgage rates either way. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 7-year Notes are sold.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow’s only relevant economic data is the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show 208,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made last week, up from the previous week’s 206,000 claims. Good news for rates would be a much higher number because rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector and bonds tend to become more appealing to investors in weaker economic times.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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